By proceeding cautiously, the Philippines hoped to prevent the maritime dispute from damaging its bilateral relationship with the region’s dominant economic and military power.įive years into Duterte’s presidency, however, irritants remain. Manila has since pursued a flexible strategy, often perceived by local and international observers alike as erratic, aiming to strengthen ties with Beijing for the sake of economic growth. Consistent with this approach, he downplayed Manila’s victory in a 2016 arbitration, awarded by a tribunal established under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which refuted Beijing’s extensive claims of sovereignty and “historic rights” over the Sea. and broaden his strategic options, Duterte has throughout his presidency minimised the issue of territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and instead sought economic benefits from China. It should also strive to foster regional cooperation, for example on the question of fisheries management.Įager to loosen ties with the U.S. Given the growing risk of escalatory incidents at sea, Manila should push for a substantive and effective Code of Conduct between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to manage maritime tensions while keeping open a diplomatic channel with Beijing to reduce misunderstandings. The simmering maritime dispute between Manila and Beijing is increasingly linked to geopolitical competition between China, on one hand, and the U.S. But five years on, it appears that his pivot may not have entirely paid off. Rather than appealing to international law as a bulwark against China’s claims, President Rodrigo Duterte has instead pursued a more pragmatic approach that avoids confronting China in the hope of reaping economic benefits. The Philippines is a key player in the South China Sea territorial disputes, which are getting sharper due to China’s growing assertiveness and the claimant states’ competition over resources.
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